Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 6.821930e-05 0.000081 0.000096 0.000112 0.000130 0.000150 0.000173
2025-03-16 5.136741e-05 0.000068 0.000088 0.000112 0.000141 0.000173 0.000212
2025-03-23 4.247921e-05 0.000061 0.000084 0.000113 0.000148 0.000189 0.000241
2025-03-30 3.466386e-05 0.000054 0.000079 0.000112 0.000154 0.000204 0.000267
2025-04-06 2.815502e-05 0.000047 0.000073 0.000109 0.000156 0.000213 0.000286
2025-04-13 2.454487e-05 0.000044 0.000072 0.000111 0.000164 0.000229 0.000315
2025-04-20 1.962558e-05 0.000039 0.000066 0.000107 0.000162 0.000234 0.000329
2025-04-27 1.660574e-05 0.000035 0.000063 0.000106 0.000166 0.000244 0.000350
2025-05-04 1.412588e-05 0.000032 0.000061 0.000106 0.000170 0.000255 0.000371
2025-05-11 1.281441e-05 0.000031 0.000061 0.000109 0.000179 0.000272 0.000401
2025-05-18 1.122823e-05 0.000029 0.000060 0.000110 0.000184 0.000285 0.000425
2025-05-25 8.978574e-06 0.000026 0.000056 0.000106 0.000182 0.000287 0.000436
2025-06-01 7.189662e-06 0.000023 0.000053 0.000104 0.000184 0.000296 0.000456
2025-06-08 5.884370e-06 0.000021 0.000050 0.000104 0.000188 0.000307 0.000480
2025-06-15 4.971723e-06 0.000019 0.000049 0.000105 0.000194 0.000321 0.000508
2025-06-22 3.987512e-06 0.000018 0.000047 0.000104 0.000196 0.000331 0.000530
2025-06-29 3.041576e-06 0.000015 0.000044 0.000101 0.000196 0.000336 0.000546
2025-07-06 2.610635e-06 0.000015 0.000044 0.000103 0.000203 0.000352 0.000577
2025-07-13 1.851789e-06 0.000013 0.000040 0.000099 0.000200 0.000354 0.000587
2025-07-20 1.443863e-06 0.000011 0.000039 0.000098 0.000203 0.000363 0.000609
2025-07-27 1.119336e-06 0.000010 0.000038 0.000098 0.000206 0.000373 0.000632
2025-08-03 9.814827e-07 0.000010 0.000038 0.000101 0.000215 0.000392 0.000667
2025-08-10 7.904970e-07 0.000010 0.000037 0.000102 0.000220 0.000406 0.000695